Texas data center power could undo two decades of air quality gains, HARC models

If new Texas data center demand is met by the projected grid mix, power-sector nitrogen oxide emissions could rise 136% from 2025 levels by 2031, with fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and carbon dioxide up about 90%, according to projections published Oct. 20 by HARC, an independent nonprofit research organization in The Woodlands, Texas. Under the highest demand forecast HARC modeled, powering data centers with on-site natural gas engines would produce more nitrogen oxides each year than all sources in Texas emit today, and even the cleanest power mix it modeled raises emissions above a no-data-center baseline. HARC vice president Carlos Gamarra told the Houston Chronicle the rush to build is pushing data centers toward the fastest power available, simple-cycle natural gas generators.